Can 13 be a Lucky Number?

In the first edition of The Decanter, we unpack a chaotic week of tariffs and market swings, upcoming nuclear talks, a potential brain drain, and the quiet funding crisis of public transportation.

Apr 13, 2025

Thirteen is usually a bad omen. Have you noticed how airlines often skip row 13 on planes? Or how some buildings avoid putting units or offices on the 13th floor, replacing it with a maintenance level or a mechanical room?

And yet, here we are. The first edition of The Decanter is out today, April 13, and it doesn’t feel like bad luck at all. If anything, it feels overdue.

Every Sunday, I’ll do what this name promises: take a moment to let the week’s news breathe. Leave the noise out and offer you a curated mix of what made headlines, what might have slipped past them, and what deserves your attention next.

Here’s what stood out this week:

Three stories everyone’s been talking about

1. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs
On April 2, the US made a major announcement: a 10% baseline tariff on imports from most countries, with even higher rates for major trading partners. Framed initially as a reciprocal move, it soon became clear the real motivation was curbing trade deficits.

Within days, the average effective US tariff hit a century-high mark. Retaliatory moves came swiftly from the EU and China.

A few days later, the US paused most tariffs for 90 days, except those on China. The standoff escalated: the US raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting Beijing to impose a 125% tariff on US goods. The Chinese government has stated it’ll hold off on further escalation, as current rates already make US goods non-competitive. In the most recent development, on Saturday, the US exempted smartphones and computers from the tariffs, certainly a big relief for tech giants.

No real clarity yet on what comes next, but the ripple effects are already being felt: higher prices, disrupted supply chains, and rising global tension.

Interested in more? NYT - Tracking On-Again, Off-Again Tariffs and the Global Trade War

2. Markets on a Roller Coaster
The markets had quite a week. The S&P 500 posted both its worst result since 2020 and its biggest gain since 2008, all within days. Meanwhile, bond markets saw the steepest yield spike in over a decade.

Rising yields are pushing up borrowing costs across the board, from mortgages to business loans. Investors, spooked by the implications of trade policies on the broader economy, sold off US assets, weakening the dollar.

This isn’t just charts and numbers. Volatility is hitting savings accounts, pension funds, and investment planning. The longer instability continues, the more businesses and households delay major decisions.

Interested in more? The Atlantic - Here Are the Places Where the Recession Has Already Begun

3. A Return to the Negotiating Table with Iran
The US and Iran sat down for direct nuclear talks, this time in Oman. The US made its stance clear: completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, or face potential military action. Iran is pushing for a deal that limits—but doesn’t eliminate—its nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanction relief.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. In the worst-case scenario, a failed negotiation could potentially drag the region into broader conflict. These talks also come at a moment of shifting geopolitics, as Iran’s influence in the region has recently waned.

Interested in more? BBC - What is Iran's nuclear programme and what does the US want?

Two stories that didn’t get enough attention, but probably should have

1. A Brain Drain is coming up?
Amid federal cuts, research institutions across the US are feeling the pinch. Grants are drying up, and some research areas—like climate science and reproductive health—are now effectively excluded from federal funding.

As hiring freezes spread across top universities, countries like France, Spain, and Germany are stepping in. They’ve launched scientific talent programs that offer scientists visas, funding, and the freedom to shape their research agendas.

This isn’t just about labs and lectures, but about the long-term health of the innovation economy. If talent leaves the US, so does the pipeline that powers everything from cancer research to clean tech. And once it’s gone, it’s hard to get back.

Interested in more? Reuters - Brain drain? Cutbacks force scientists to seek jobs in Europe; PBS - What happens to health research when ‘women’ and ‘diversity’ are banned words?

2. A Global Response That’s Becoming Quiet
In late March, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar, killing over thousands people and displacing millions. The disaster hits a country already in turmoil, torn by conflict between the junta and local armed groups.

Access to affected areas is limited and aid is desperately needed. China has stepped in with $137 million in aid, the largest donation so far. Similarly, European countries have stepped up their contributions, with Germany and France committing each tens of millions to relief efforts. The US is largely absent following recent USAID budget cuts.

The UN estimates that over 5 million people require immediate assistance. But with a gap in funding in the hundreds of millions of dollars, the crisis is growing quieter and deadlier by the day. This should definitely remain on our radar.

Interested in more? CNN - Myanmar’s deadly earthquake exposes void left by US in global disaster responses

One thing to keep an eye on next week

Corporate Earnings Season Has Sprung
Next week brings earnings reports from major players like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, and United Airlines. Analysts will be listening closely for signs of how these companies are navigating the turbulence, particularly in the face of tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Recently, Delta’s CEO offered a hint of the mood: the airline is acting as if “the economy is going into a recession.”

These calls won’t just tell us how the giants are faring, but also give us clues about the road ahead for jobs, wages, and investment.

Interested in more? Bloomberg - Tariffs Dominate Earnings Calls With Firms Bracing for Fallout

Bonus track: Something that stuck with me

Fare isn’t free
I ride Muni almost every day here in San Francisco. And more often than not—especially during the morning and evening rush—I see people, usually professionals headed to or from FiDi, simply walking on without paying. It bothers me more than I expect it to.

Fare evasion on Muni has nearly doubled since 2019, up to about 21% of riders. That adds up to nearly $89 million in lost revenue each year, at a time when the SFMTA is already facing a projected $322 million deficit. Fines exist, but enforcement feels insufficient, and the agency may soon resort to service cuts. It’s frustrating to watch a system so many rely on being slowly gutted while some people, many of whom can afford to pay, treat it like a free ride.

San Francisco isn’t alone. New York’s buses are seeing similar trends, with nearly half of riders skipping fares. This is a scene that repeats across major cities. I’m not saying that fixing fare evasion alone will solve public transit’s funding crisis. We need a broader debate on how to make these systems sustainable and what support to offer those who truly can’t pay. But there’s also a conversation to be had about how some who can afford it assume someone else will pick up the tab.

Interested in more? NYT - Fare Evasion Surges on N.Y.C. Buses, Where 48% of Riders Fail to Pay

That’s all for this week.

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